Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹24.27(▲0.75%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CIFLCIFL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: CIFL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC)

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹860 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Asset quality remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in core profitability and credit costs. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

32.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹24.27▲0.75%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+12.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-7.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

NIM Compression

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (1)

CriticalHigh

NIM Compression

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

CIFL: NIM decline is accelerating (557 bps drop vs prev -330 bps).

"NIM is under severe pressure due to rising cost of funds or falling asset yields."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	0.45	4.59	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+55.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) (n=38 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

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Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹24.27(+0.75%)

1M Divergence-13.15%

1 Week-1.18%

1 Month-13.88%

6 Months-32.83%

1 Year-33.67%

2 Year-34.49%

3 Year-34.49%

Sector Average (1M)-0.73%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CIFL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.9391σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2514 of 2716

Top 92.56% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.2%

1M-13.9%

6M-32.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹31

200 DMA₹31.95

150 DMA Slope-3.7636%Declining

Relative Strength-24.57%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5889

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AFILAkme Fintrade (India) Limited	0	0th	-5	2	+0	GovernanceStable
CIFLCIFL	5	32th	+5	1	+1	Earnings QualityStable
AIILAuthum Investment & Infrastructure Limited	16	78th	0	6	+0	Earnings QualityStable
AVONMOREAvonmore Capital & Management Services Limited	17	84th	+17	3	+1	Earnings QualityStable