Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,379.3(▼0.79%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CIPLACipla Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Cipla Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pharmaceuticals

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market Cap₹1,09,131 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

48 / 100

+32 QoQ

Deteriorating

Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

99.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +5 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,379.3▼0.79%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk48 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 48 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 10.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

CIPLA: Net Profit collapsed by 55.3% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (16.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-4.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

CIPLA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 7.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.27	7.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+18.0	+47.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,379.3(-0.79%)

1M Divergence+3.06%

1 Week-2.69%

1 Month+5.32%

6 Months-9.32%

1 Year-5.18%

2 Year-2.86%

3 Year+46.74%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CIPLA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.2020σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1422 of 2716

Top 52.36% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.7%

1M+5.3%

6M-9.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,394.19

200 DMA₹1,434

150 DMA Slope-1.4879%Declining

Relative Strength-3.83%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2789

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARTIDRUGSAarti Drugs Limited	19	51th	-5	11	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited	23	63th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
BALAXIBALAXI PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED	45	96th	+10	40	+1	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration
CIPLACipla Limited	48	99th	+32	7	+5	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration