DECCANCEDECCANCE Forensic Risk Analysis

Cement & Cement Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
26 / 100
-9 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

79.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹618.95▲2.93%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+10.6 pts
Final Composite Risk26 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 26 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (11)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DECCANCE: EBITDA margin compressed by 12.2 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.7% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 93.4%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 8.7 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (137.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-27.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DECCANCE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.13x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
DECCANCE: Net Profit collapsed by 168.9% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
DECCANCE: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (0.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-27.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
DECCANCE: Revenue fell 33.4% while Debt rose 37.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)10.7310.50⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+40.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹618.95(+2.93%)
1M Divergence-7.73%
1 Week+0.6%
1 Month-5.46%
6 Months-15.79%
1 Year-13.87%
2 Year+9.26%
3 Year+39.23%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

DECCANCE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6224σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2234 of 2716
Top 82.25% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.6%
1M-5.5%
6M-15.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹727.64
200 DMA₹812.64
150 DMA Slope-7.5109%Declining
Relative Strength-10.34%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3000
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).
ACLAndhra Cements Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile38th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

DECCANCEDECCANCE
26 Risk
Sector %ile79th
Delta-9
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

ACCACC Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+25
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

SHREDIGCEMSHREDIGCEM
41 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+21
Active Flags19
Accel+3
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20266432976753
FY20255438-38714
FY20248153757519
FY20237914955265