EMKAYEMKAY Forensic Risk Analysis

Stockbroking & Allied
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹547 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹247.63▲13.51%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+22.7 pts
Stability Adjustment
-3.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Debt growth
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
EMKAY: NIM decline is accelerating (4294 bps drop vs prev -6248 bps). [Growth Adjusted: 119%]

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.825.23✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Stockbroking & Allied (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹247.63(+13.51%)
1M Divergence+11.58%
1 Week+12.58%
1 Month+10.86%
6 Months-15.9%
1 Year+4.52%
2 Year+60.45%
3 Year+255.08%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

EMKAY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score10%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.1233σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#787 of 2716
Top 28.98% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+12.6%
1M+10.9%
6M-15.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹254.17
200 DMA₹256.92
150 DMA Slope-5.3843%Declining
Relative Strength-10.07%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5717
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
5PAISA5Paisa Capital Limited
13 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

EMKAYEMKAY
20 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta+5
Active Flags2
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
0.99.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202639615-7292
FY202536157-246
FY2024315322233
FY202321514-6323