ERISEris Lifesciences Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹18,881 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
+5 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

54.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,362.1▼1.18%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Competitive Position
+9.6 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (30.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (6.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ERIS: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
ERIS: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.5% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 39.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.337.70✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+47.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,362.1(-1.18%)
1M Divergence+0.7%
1 Week+0.05%
1 Month+2.96%
6 Months-12.68%
1 Year-13.03%
2 Year+49.53%
3 Year+114.64%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in growth sustainability suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ERIS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score15%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3269σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1710 of 2716
Top 62.96% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.1%
1M+3.0%
6M-12.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,450.59
200 DMA₹1,507.45
150 DMA Slope-2.1266%Declining
Relative Strength-7.41%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3061
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (19).
ERISEris Lifesciences Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile55th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+3
Growth Sustainability

Watch

AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta0
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

ALBERTDAVDAlbert David Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta-8
Active Flags27
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
3.636th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,1376485382,310
FY20252,9123751,0652,478
FY20242,0333974862,735
FY20231,696374292830