Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹777.55(▼0.19%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GRANULESGranules India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Granules India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pharmaceuticals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹13,869 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

6.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹777.55▼0.19%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+6.4 pts

Stability Adjustment

-1.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 5 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (9.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-18.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (28.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-18.6%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2024

GRANULES: Net Profit collapsed by 62.5% from FY2023 Q1 to FY2024 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -21.8%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

GRANULES: Revenue fell 0.4% while Debt rose 5.1% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.17	7.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+47.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹777.55(-0.19%)

1M Divergence+8.86%

1 Week+2.78%

1 Month+11.13%

6 Months+37.28%

1 Year+47.39%

2 Year+86.86%

3 Year+173.81%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GRANULES • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score90%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing98%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.9530σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#259 of 2716

Top 9.54% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+2.8%

1M+11.1%

6M+37.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹612.38

200 DMA₹588.07

150 DMA Slope+4.6368%Rising

Relative Strength+42.21%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6999

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (19).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ABBOTINDIAABBOTINDIA	0	0th	0	0	+0	GovernanceStable
GRANULESGranules India Limited	5	6th	+5	6	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
AARTIDRUGSAarti Drugs Limited	19	51th	-5	11	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited	23	63th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch