Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,097.6(▼0.16%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GRASIMGrasim Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Grasim Industries Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Cement & Cement Products

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹1,88,505 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

0 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,097.6▼0.16%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

No active forensic penalties contributing.

Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 13 → 0 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating cash flow
Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GRASIM: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GRASIM: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (27.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (11.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (28.9%) amidst slow revenue growth (10.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

GRASIM: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.0 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 2.8 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.42	10.50	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+66.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹3,097.6(-0.16%)

1M Divergence+8.58%

1 Week-2.13%

1 Month+10.85%

6 Months+13.45%

1 Year+23.17%

2 Year+34.74%

3 Year+84.18%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

GRASIM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing96%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.2896σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#618 of 2716

Top 22.75% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.1%

1M+10.8%

6M+13.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹2,811.06

200 DMA₹2,809.44

150 DMA Slope+1.0429%Rising

Relative Strength+18.94%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4614

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
GRASIMGrasim Industries Limited	0	0th	0	7	+0	GovernanceStable
BVCLBarak Valley Cements Limited	8	17th	-5	8	+0	GovernanceStable
ACLAndhra Cements Limited	15	38th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
ACCACC Limited	35	93th	+25	13	+1	Earnings QualityWatch