GUJTHEMGUJTHEM Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+18 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

80.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹395▼0.95%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+13.5 pts
Earnings Quality
+10.8 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 68.8%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (168.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-74.3%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GUJTHEM: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.6 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.7% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (205.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (15.5%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.457.70✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+47.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹395(-0.95%)
1M Divergence+6.37%
1 Week+7.42%
1 Month+8.64%
6 Months+1.95%
1 Year+27.74%
2 Year+80.74%
3 Year+80.74%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GUJTHEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.19%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score55%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing19%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.7731σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#318 of 2716
Top 11.71% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+7.4%
1M+8.6%
6M+1.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹363.05
200 DMA₹370.93
150 DMA Slope-1.3973%Declining
Relative Strength+7.44%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.7102
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

GUJTHEMGUJTHEM
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta+18
Active Flags4
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta0
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

CIPLACipla Limited
48 Risk
Sector %ile99th
Delta+32
Active Flags15
Accel+5
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.828th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
3.232.5th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261684749160
FY2025153499130