Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,015.4(▼0.08%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

HESTERBIOHESTERBIO Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: HESTERBIO Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pharmaceuticals

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

40.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,015.4▼0.08%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+15.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

HESTERBIO: EBITDA margin compressed by 6.9 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.4% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

HESTERBIO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.43x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

HESTERBIO: Net Profit collapsed by 75.9% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (4.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-3.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 47.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

HESTERBIO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (18.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-3.6%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.58	7.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+47.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹2,015.4(-0.08%)

1M Divergence+21.06%

1 Week-6.54%

1 Month+23.33%

6 Months+22.56%

1 Year+11.8%

2 Year+12.71%

3 Year+24.42%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

HESTERBIO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.69%

Trend QualityDeveloping

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing69%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+1.0142σ

Strong positive momentum leadership

Universe Rank#238 of 2716

Top 8.76% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-6.5%

1M+23.3%

6M+22.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,584.56

200 DMA₹1,675.84

150 DMA Slope+0.0376%Flat / Basing

Relative Strength+28.12%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.7707

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (19).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
HESTERBIOHESTERBIO	15	40th	-5	8	+0	GovernanceStable
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited	23	63th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited	35	81th	0	18	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ALBERTDAVDAlbert David Limited	37	90th	-8	27	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch