HINDALCOHindalco Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Aluminium
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹2,11,340 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+23 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,146.3▲0.44%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+6.4 pts
Stability Adjustment
+4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HINDALCO: Raw material costs consumed an additional 9.9% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HINDALCO: Net Profit collapsed by 50.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (54.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (20.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 13.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (15.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (8.5%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.097.27✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Aluminium (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,146.3(+0.44%)
1M Divergence+8.17%
1 Week+3.85%
1 Month+10.43%
6 Months+41.38%
1 Year+82.97%
2 Year+68.47%
3 Year+177.82%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

HINDALCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score82.5%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing96%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.8315σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#298 of 2716
Top 10.97% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+3.9%
1M+10.4%
6M+41.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹928.93
200 DMA₹881.59
150 DMA Slope+4.7781%Rising
Relative Strength+46.87%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0736
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).
ARFINArfin India Limited
7 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

MAANALUMAANALU
25 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

HINDALCOHindalco Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+23
Active Flags6
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026277,83313,39110,25096,659
FY2025241,20416,00224,41061,931
FY2024217,45810,15524,05654,501
FY2023224,45910,09719,20858,335