ICILIndo Count Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Textile Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹5,229 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
37 / 100
+1 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

92.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹346.25▲3.44%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+14.4 pts
Competitive Position
+14.4 pts
Earnings Quality
+7.9 pts
Final Composite Risk37 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 37 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 5.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
ICIL: Net Profit collapsed by 67.6% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (54.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (1.1%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ICIL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ICIL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.4% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ICIL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.69x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -18.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (15.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (1.1%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.258.38✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+29.0+42.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Textile Products (n=42 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹346.25(+3.44%)
1M Divergence+22.57%
1 Week+11.78%
1 Month+24.84%
6 Months+10.17%
1 Year+28.92%
2 Year+4.47%
3 Year+82.93%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

ICIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score82.5%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing96%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.9034σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#275 of 2716
Top 10.13% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+11.8%
1M+24.8%
6M+10.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹277.79
200 DMA₹273.68
150 DMA Slope+1.6349%Rising
Relative Strength+15.65%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0680
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (24).
ABCOTSA B Cotspin India Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile51th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ALOKINDSAlok Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta+8
Active Flags23
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

ICILIndo Count Industries Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+1
Active Flags10
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
2.828th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
0.44th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,2111275731,074
FY20254,1912463941,218
FY20243,601338146914
FY20233,043277767841