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IDEAVodafone Idea Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Telecommunication
Risk ClassStable
Market Capโ‚น1,53,739 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
13 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

22.2th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Market Context
๐ŸŸกPartial Confirmation
Market structure supports fundamentals, but capital flows remain weak.
Updated10 Jul 2026
Market Price
โ‚น14.19โ–ฒ1.07%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Risk Score Composition
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+2.0 pts
Final Composite Risk13 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 โ†’ 13 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
๐ŸŸข Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
๐Ÿ’ง Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
IDEA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.09x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

View Risk Details
Relative Growth Weakness
๐Ÿ“Š Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

View Risk Details
Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (ฯƒ)1.835.28โœ… RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ฮต_s)11.00โœ… RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%โœ… NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+53.0+51.0โœ… RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Telecommunication (n=19 peers)

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Valuation & Expectations Intelligence
Forensic valuation overlay. Evaluates market-implied growth expectations using reverse DCF and tracks relative peer pricing.

Valuation Summary

The market is pricing IDEA for 36.1% long-term growth versus 91.0% historically observed growth. Current expectations appear achievable, supported by strong cash-flow generation.

Expectation Gap

-54.9%

Market expects materially less growth than historical delivery.

Implied Growth36.1%
Blended Hist. Growth91.0%
Valuation Risk
Low
Methodology
Reverse DCF Model

Market expectations are materially below historical business performance.

Composite Score
15/100
0โ€“33 Low ย ยทย 34โ€“66 Moderate ย ยทย 67โ€“100 High

Growth Support

Audits if historical fundamentals
support expectations

Strong
Revenue Growthโœ“ Strong
Profitabilityโœ“ Healthy
Cash Flowโœ“ Positive

Market Pricing

Valuation context and yield boundaries

Historical Valuation
15th Percentile
Richer than 15% of its own history
FCF Yield
5.48%
Valuation Regime
Significantly Below Average
IDEA โ€ข MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 โ€” Advancing

The company currently exhibits characteristics consistent with a Stage 2 advancing structure, including improving trend quality and strengthening market participation metrics. The current Stage 2 regime has persisted for 28 trading sessions.

Stage Transition Conf.97%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score
Measures how fully the stock exhibits characteristics of its current stage.
81%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Stage Transition Confidence97%
Based on historical stage-transition patterns.
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score
+0.5762ฯƒ
Improving momentum strength
Momentum Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#391 of 2766
Top 14.14% in momentum strength
A/D FlowDistribution
21D Flow Score

A rolling Z-score representing whether the net accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling) pressure is expanding or contracting relative to the stock's 252-day history (smoothed via a 21-day EMA).

โ€ข > +1.0ฯƒ: Strong Accumulation

โ€ข > +0.3ฯƒ: Accumulation

โ€ข -0.3ฯƒ to +0.3ฯƒ: Neutral

โ€ข < -0.3ฯƒ: Distribution

โ€ข < -1.0ฯƒ: Strong Distribution

-0.66ฯƒ
Flow Trendโ–ผ Deteriorating
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMAโ‚น11.54
200 DMAโ‚น10.99
150 DMA Slope
+5.2793%Rising
Relative Strength
+28.61%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2851ฯƒ
Avg Turnover (200D)โ‚น567.9 Cr
ParticipationHealthy
LiquidityLiquid

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
โ‚น14.19(+1.07%)
1M Divergence-4.18%
1 Week-0.42%
1 Month+2.23%
6 Months+26.02%
1 Year+93.59%
2 Year-14.72%
3 Year+93.06%
Sector Average (1M)+6.41%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE โ€ข NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience. Market-implied growth expectations (36.1%) trail historically observed growth (91.0%). Structural fundamentals and price structure (Stage 2 โ€” Advancing) are currently aligned.

Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingVal Risk: Low

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
PACEDIGITKLowest Risk Peer
PACEDIGITK
0 Stable
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags0
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BHARTIARTL
Bharti Airtel Limited
5 Stable
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags8
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

IDEA
Vodafone Idea Limited
13 Watch
Sector %ile22th
Delta-5
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

TTML
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Limited
29 Moderate
Sector %ile83th
Delta-5
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

INDUSTOWER
Indus Towers Limited
30 Moderate
Sector %ile89th
Delta-5
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

MTNLHighest Risk Peer
MTNL
36 Moderate
Sector %ile100th
Delta-8
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

Key Financials (INR Cr)

Revenue Trend
Growingโ†‘
Profitability
Improvingโ†‘
Cash Generation
Improvingโ†‘
Debt Trend
Fallingโ†“
PeriodRevenueEBITDANet ProfitCFODebt
FY202645,41478,15134,55219,411149,455
FY202544,59219,147-27,3839,291196,296
FY202442,76517,995-31,23820,826207,630
FY202342,48917,106-29,30118,869201,586
FY202238,645-7,255-28,24517,387-
3Y Growth Snapshot+7%+357%+218%+3%-26%