Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹384(▼0.47%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

INDIACEMThe India Cements Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: The India Cements Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Cement & Cement Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹12,332 Cr

Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability

Flagium AI Risk Score

27 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in growth sustainability. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

82.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹384▼0.47%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+17.0 pts

Final Composite Risk27 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 27 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

INDIACEM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.81x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (32.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (2.5%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

INDIACEM: Net Profit collapsed by 102.2% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 2.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -0.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.17	10.50	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+39.0	+51.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹384(-0.47%)

1M Divergence-5.27%

1 Week-5.09%

1 Month-3.01%

6 Months-6.83%

1 Year+16.54%

2 Year+87.78%

3 Year+80.32%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in growth sustainability suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

INDIACEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.44%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score20%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing44%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3881σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1855 of 2716

Top 68.30% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-5.1%

1M-3.0%

6M-6.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹410.9

200 DMA₹404.9

150 DMA Slope+0.3111%Rising

Relative Strength-1.34%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.7706

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ACLAndhra Cements Limited	15	38th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
INDIACEMThe India Cements Limited	27	83th	-5	6	+0	Growth SustainabilityWatch
ACCACC Limited	35	93th	+25	13	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
SHREDIGCEMSHREDIGCEM	41	100th	+21	19	+3	Competitive PositionModerate Deterioration