Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹5,068.5(▼2.35%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

JKCEMENTJK Cement Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: JK Cement Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Cement & Cement Products

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹43,355 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

37.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹5,068.5▼2.35%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

JKCEMENT: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.3 bps YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (24.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-6.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (28.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (-6.6%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 20.7%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

JKCEMENT: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.26x in FY2025 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.18	10.50	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹5,068.5(-2.35%)

1M Divergence-6.4%

1 Week-4.64%

1 Month-4.13%

6 Months-9.79%

1 Year-7.25%

2 Year+31.83%

3 Year+61.24%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

JKCEMENT • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.6167σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2224 of 2716

Top 81.89% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.6%

1M-4.1%

6M-9.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹5,579.07

200 DMA₹5,868.27

150 DMA Slope-2.5493%Declining

Relative Strength-4.30%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6979

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
JKCEMENTJK Cement Limited	15	38th	0	6	+0	Earnings QualityStable
ACLAndhra Cements Limited	15	38th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
DECCANCEDECCANCE	26	79th	-9	31	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ACCACC Limited	35	93th	+25	13	+1	Earnings QualityWatch