KHAICHEMKHAICHEM Forensic Risk Analysis

Fertilizers
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
10 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

31.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹56.17▲0%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+16.5 pts
Earnings Quality
+7.9 pts
Stability Adjustment
-14.0 pts
Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 8 → 10 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
KHAICHEM: Net Profit collapsed by 85.4% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Inventory growth (12.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-72.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
KHAICHEM: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -28.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
KHAICHEM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.11x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
KHAICHEM: Revenue fell 39.6% while Debt rose 39.8% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.57.97✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+56.0+45.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹56.17(+0%)
1M Divergence+0.74%
1 Week+2.05%
1 Month+3.01%
6 Months-32.4%
1 Year-32.18%
2 Year-14.31%
3 Year-20.12%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

KHAICHEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5188σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2090 of 2716
Top 76.95% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+2.0%
1M+3.0%
6M-32.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹71.14
200 DMA₹83.05
150 DMA Slope-11.2899%Declining
Relative Strength-27.07%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5387
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21).
ARIESAries Agro Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

KHAICHEMKHAICHEM
10 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta+5
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta+14
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta0
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
1.817.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,0036544278
FY2025721144313
FY2024537-70-55309
FY202388942-85221