MANGLMCEMMANGLMCEM Forensic Risk Analysis

Cement & Cement Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
23 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

69.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹841.65▲1.31%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+14.4 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+7.7 pts
Stability Adjustment
+1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk23 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 23 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
MANGLMCEM: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.8% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (34.3%) amidst slow revenue growth (9.5%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
MANGLMCEM: Net Profit collapsed by 51.0% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
MANGLMCEM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.79x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (14.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (9.5%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
MANGLMCEM: Revenue fell 1.3% while Debt rose 2.6% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -5.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.4210.50✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+43.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹841.65(+1.31%)
1M Divergence-11.03%
1 Week-1.05%
1 Month-8.76%
6 Months+6.22%
1 Year+8.58%
2 Year-0.9%
3 Year+174.9%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

MANGLMCEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.94%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing94%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2407σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1508 of 2716
Top 55.52% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.1%
1M-8.8%
6M+6.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹807.43
200 DMA₹789.88
150 DMA Slope+2.0522%Rising
Relative Strength+19.61%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2398
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).
ACLAndhra Cements Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile38th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

MANGLMCEMMANGLMCEM
23 Risk
Sector %ile69th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

ACCACC Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+25
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

PRSMJOHNSNPrism Johnson Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+15
Active Flags21
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
0.44th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,80212994870
FY20251,74245188615
FY20241,76460182599
FY20231,83717139612