MBAPLMBAPL Forensic Risk Analysis

Fertilizers
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹543.25▲2.94%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-14.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (115.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (33.2%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
MBAPL: Net Profit collapsed by 94.3% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
MBAPL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 24.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
MBAPL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.96x in FY2024 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.927.97✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+45.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹543.25(+2.94%)
1M Divergence+1.05%
1 Week-0.95%
1 Month+3.32%
6 Months+34.67%
1 Year+51%
2 Year+136.5%
3 Year+74.97%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

MBAPL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score75%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing96%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.3767σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#532 of 2716
Top 19.59% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.9%
1M+3.3%
6M+34.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹456.35
200 DMA₹447.94
150 DMA Slope+3.7468%Rising
Relative Strength+38.86%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3663
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21).
MBAPLMBAPL
5 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

ARIESAries Agro Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta+14
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta0
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,884150-127855
FY20251,0705796318
FY202482825149290
FY2023987124-70323