MONARCHMONARCH Forensic Risk Analysis

Stockbroking & Allied
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,964 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹340.4▲3.21%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.3 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 20 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
MONARCH: NIM compressed by 329 bps YoY (to 26.57%).

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.735.23✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Stockbroking & Allied (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹340.4(+3.21%)
1M Divergence+15.81%
1 Week+3.01%
1 Month+15.08%
6 Months+11.33%
1 Year+10.76%
2 Year+32.52%
3 Year+238.5%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

MONARCH • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.27%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing27%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.6504σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#372 of 2716
Top 13.70% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+3.0%
1M+15.1%
6M+11.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹296.44
200 DMA₹303.52
150 DMA Slope-0.0747%Declining
Relative Strength+18.80%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0716
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
5PAISA5Paisa Capital Limited
13 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

MONARCHMONARCH
20 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta0
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
1.919th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202637318111427
FY2025328149309
FY2024279123-145113
FY202316243-213