NATIONALUMNational Aluminium Company Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Aluminium
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹66,486 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
6 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹434.4▲0.05%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+7.7 pts
Earnings Quality
+4.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-6.0 pts
Final Composite Risk6 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 6 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (16.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-12.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -17.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (20.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (9.1%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.277.27✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+60.0+46.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Aluminium (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹434.4(+0.05%)
1M Divergence+7.07%
1 Week+4.37%
1 Month+9.33%
6 Months+64.17%
1 Year+151.16%
2 Year+148.64%
3 Year+487.19%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

NATIONALUM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score82.5%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing96%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.9271σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#267 of 2716
Top 9.83% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+4.4%
1M+9.3%
6M+64.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹343.5
200 DMA₹307.48
150 DMA Slope+8.3467%Rising
Relative Strength+69.66%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1741
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (20).
NATIONALUMNational Aluminium Company Limited
6 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

ARFINArfin India Limited
7 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

MAANALUMAANALU
25 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

HINDALCOHindalco Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+23
Active Flags10
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
4.948.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202618,5095,7976,438-
FY202517,1455,2685,806124
FY202413,4001,9882,71939
FY202314,4901,43590848