NCLINDNCLIND Forensic Risk Analysis

Cement & Cement Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
22 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

62.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹185.67▲0.03%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk22 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 22 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 4.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (26.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (5.6%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
NCLIND: Net Profit collapsed by 71.0% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (40.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-21.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
NCLIND: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.6 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 7.4% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 21.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
NCLIND: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.01x in FY2025 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
NCLIND: Revenue fell 24.2% while Debt rose 14.2% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.7310.50✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+44.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹185.67(+0.03%)
1M Divergence+3.38%
1 Week+9.32%
1 Month+5.64%
6 Months-4.44%
1 Year-11.68%
2 Year-4.2%
3 Year+4.06%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

NCLIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score32.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0165σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#968 of 2716
Top 35.64% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+9.3%
1M+5.6%
6M-4.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹186.53
200 DMA₹191.69
150 DMA Slope-1.9718%Declining
Relative Strength+1.38%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9058
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).
ACLAndhra Cements Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile38th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

NCLINDNCLIND
22 Risk
Sector %ile62th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

ACCACC Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+25
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

PRSMJOHNSNPrism Johnson Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+15
Active Flags21
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,45495145237
FY20251,4322586249
FY20241,89093183218
FY20231,62844182292