NFLNational Fertilizers Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Fertilizers
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹3,596 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
23 / 100
-9 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

56.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹75.29▲0.91%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+14.8 pts
Earnings Quality
+7.9 pts
Final Composite Risk23 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 8 → 23 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 69.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
NFL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.81x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (201.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (53.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
NFL: Net Profit collapsed by 396.7% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
NFL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
NFL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.9% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
NFL: Revenue fell 20.6% while Debt rose 2.4% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.587.97✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+43.0+45.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹75.29(+0.91%)
1M Divergence-5.63%
1 Week-3.92%
1 Month-3.36%
6 Months-10.14%
1 Year-22.87%
2 Year-25.21%
3 Year+17.02%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

NFL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2888σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1620 of 2716
Top 59.65% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.9%
1M-3.4%
6M-10.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹81.03
200 DMA₹84.44
150 DMA Slope-2.8351%Declining
Relative Strength-4.66%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6558
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).
NFLNational Fertilizers Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile56th
Delta-9
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta+14
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta0
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

COROMANDELCoromandel International Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+15
Active Flags17
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
2.625.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202621,568211-1,3423,959
FY202519,8901842,5901,996
FY202423,6601506684,088
FY202329,809458-3333,991