Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹124.29(▲0.61%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

PARADEEPParadeep Phosphates Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Paradeep Phosphates Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Fertilizers

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹11,885 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

10 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

31.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹124.29▲0.61%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+19.0 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+6.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-25.0 pts

Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 10 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover
Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 40.9%.

"Working capital cycle is stretching dangerously. This is putting severe strain on daily operations."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (102.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (34.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2024

PARADEEP: Net Profit collapsed by 291.1% from FY2023 Q1 to FY2024 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

PARADEEP: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

PARADEEP: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.29x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.5	7.97	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+56.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹124.29(+0.61%)

1M Divergence-5.89%

1 Week-2.62%

1 Month-3.62%

6 Months-20.79%

1 Year-29.14%

2 Year+79.79%

3 Year+133.32%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

PARADEEP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3137σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1678 of 2716

Top 61.78% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.6%

1M-3.6%

6M-20.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹137.28

200 DMA₹151.52

150 DMA Slope-5.5102%Declining

Relative Strength-15.30%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8473

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ARIESAries Agro Limited	5	0th	+5	5	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
PARADEEPParadeep Phosphates Limited	10	31th	+5	6	+2	Balance Sheet StressStable
CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited	25	63th	+14	11	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited	35	75th	0	26	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch