Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹120.1(▼0.28%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

RAMAPHORAMAPHO Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: RAMAPHO Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Fertilizers

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹120.1▼0.28%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+10.8 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.8 pts

Stability Adjustment

-15.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

RAMAPHO: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.7 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.7% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

RAMAPHO: Net Profit collapsed by 165.3% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (24.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-31.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 9.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

RAMAPHO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.61x in FY2025 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

RAMAPHO: Revenue fell 31.0% while Debt rose 29.4% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.75	7.97	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹120.1(-0.28%)

1M Divergence-15.42%

1 Week-1.53%

1 Month-13.15%

6 Months-28.36%

1 Year+2.92%

2 Year+48.9%

3 Year+33.18%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

RAMAPHO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.7064σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2322 of 2716

Top 85.49% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.5%

1M-13.2%

6M-28.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹150.45

200 DMA₹149.95

150 DMA Slope-2.5778%Declining

Relative Strength-20.83%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2216

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
RAMAPHORAMAPHO	5	0th	+5	6	+1	Earnings QualityStable
ARIESAries Agro Limited	5	0th	+5	5	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited	25	63th	+14	11	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited	35	75th	0	26	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch