Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹126.99(▲1.55%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

RCFRashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Fertilizers

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹6,704 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹126.99▲1.55%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 9 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Relative Growth Weakness
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

RCF: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

RCF: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.8% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

RCF: Net Profit collapsed by 84.1% from FY2024 Q1 to FY2025 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -9.7%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

RCF: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.14x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

RCF: Revenue fell 20.6% while Debt rose 76.3% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.17	7.97	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹126.99(+1.55%)

1M Divergence-3.99%

1 Week-3.86%

1 Month-1.72%

6 Months-5.56%

1 Year-14.1%

2 Year-15.64%

3 Year+29.21%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

RCF • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1833σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1372 of 2716

Top 50.52% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.9%

1M-1.7%

6M-5.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹132.97

200 DMA₹136.86

150 DMA Slope-1.8023%Declining

Relative Strength-0.07%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8599

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
RCFRashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited	5	0th	-5	7	+0	GovernanceStable
ARIESAries Agro Limited	5	0th	+5	5	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited	25	63th	+14	11	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited	35	75th	0	26	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch