RECLTDREC Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Financial Institution
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹85,632 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
18 / 100
+3 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

83.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹325.05▼1.92%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+18.0 pts
Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 18 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
RECLTD: NIM compressed by 77 bps YoY (to 3.40%).

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.643.81✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+48.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Financial Institution (n=7 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹325.05(-1.92%)
1M Divergence-7.53%
1 Week-3.72%
1 Month-8.26%
6 Months-5.83%
1 Year-15.17%
2 Year-33.56%
3 Year+163.28%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

RECLTD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4666σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2009 of 2716
Top 73.97% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.7%
1M-8.3%
6M-5.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹349.58
200 DMA₹352.73
150 DMA Slope-0.7565%Declining
Relative Strength-0.34%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9086
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (11).
RECLTDREC Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta+3
Active Flags2
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Stable

HUDCOHousing & Urban Development Corporation Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.828th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202659,62816,3085,972514,725
FY202556,43415,884-39,101496,243
FY202447,57114,145-57,723445,568
FY202339,52011,167-37,360380,790