Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹180.35(▲1.76%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

SAGCEMSAGCEM Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: SAGCEM Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Cement & Cement Products

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

37.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹180.35▲1.76%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+11.5 pts

Stability Adjustment

+3.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 22 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Working Capital Expansion
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 11.2 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 46.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 12 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

SAGCEM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.50x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

SAGCEM: Net Profit collapsed by 730.8% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

SAGCEM: Revenue fell 10.9% while Debt rose 0.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.92	10.50	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹180.35(+1.76%)

1M Divergence-2.2%

1 Week+0.14%

1 Month+0.07%

6 Months-13.28%

1 Year-23.47%

2 Year-17.69%

3 Year-13.45%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

SAGCEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3952σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1870 of 2716

Top 68.85% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+0.1%

1M+0.1%

6M-13.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹196.42

200 DMA₹211.27

150 DMA Slope-4.5414%Declining

Relative Strength-6.99%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5210

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
SAGCEMSAGCEM	15	38th	-5	6	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
ACLAndhra Cements Limited	15	38th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
DECCANCEDECCANCE	26	79th	-9	31	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ACCACC Limited	35	93th	+25	13	+1	Earnings QualityWatch