SHREDIGCEMSHREDIGCEM Forensic Risk Analysis

Cement & Cement Products
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
41 / 100
+21 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹73▲1.91%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+14.8 pts
Earnings Quality
+11.4 pts
Final Composite Risk41 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 41 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 119.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 7.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (63.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-21.4%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.1%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
SHREDIGCEM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -1.59x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SHREDIGCEM: Net Profit collapsed by 56.7% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (20.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-21.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)9.1810.50✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+25.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹73(+1.91%)
1M Divergence-1.9%
1 Week+1.26%
1 Month+0.37%
6 Months-19%
1 Year-9.26%
2 Year-26.57%
3 Year-4.27%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

SHREDIGCEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2703σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1585 of 2716
Top 58.36% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.3%
1M+0.4%
6M-19.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹78.42
200 DMA₹81.35
150 DMA Slope-2.7620%Declining
Relative Strength-13.51%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2477
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).
AMBUJACEMAmbuja Cements Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile21th
Delta+2
Active Flags10
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

ACLAndhra Cements Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile38th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ACCACC Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta+25
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

SHREDIGCEMSHREDIGCEM
41 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+21
Active Flags8
Accel+3
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.424th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
2.625.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202675325-411513
FY202573525135110
FY20248018896-
FY20237345886-