SHRIRAMFINShriram Finance Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC)
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,67,798 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
18 / 100
+3 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Asset quality remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in core profitability and credit costs. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

86.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
911.70.8%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+18.0 pts
Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 018 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Debt growth
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SHRIRAMFIN: NIM decline is accelerating (39 bps drop vs prev -78 bps).

"NIM is under severe pressure due to rising cost of funds or falling asset yields."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.454.59✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+48.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) (n=38 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
911.7(-0.8%)
1M Divergence-2.01%
1 Week-4.25%
1 Month-2.74%
6 Months+10.09%
1 Year+43.39%
2 Year+99.04%
3 Year+241.09%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

SHRIRAMFIN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.62%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score42.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing62%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3937σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1867 of 2716
Top 68.74% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.3%
1M-2.7%
6M+10.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA943.27
200 DMA863.42
150 DMA Slope+4.4062%Rising
Relative Strength+15.58%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9567
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
AIILAuthum Investment & Infrastructure Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile78th
Delta0
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

SHRIRAMFINShriram Finance Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta+3
Active Flags2
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.828th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202648,19310,024-13,281181,212
FY202541,8599,576-43,652178,111
FY202436,4137,399-31,101151,052
FY202330,5086,020-17,625128,062