SMLMAHSMLMAH Forensic Risk Analysis

Commercial Vehicles
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
12 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

33.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹3,713.5▲1.54%
PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+11.9 pts
Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 12 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SMLMAH: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.0 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 22.0% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (26.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (1.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
SMLMAH: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.11x in FY2025 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
SMLMAH: Net Profit collapsed by 80.2% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 38.4%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.188.94✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+54.0+52.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Commercial Vehicles (n=4 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹3,713.5(+1.54%)
1M Divergence-2.65%
1 Week-4.32%
1 Month-0.38%
6 Months+5.5%
1 YearN/A
2 Year+22.33%
3 Year+22.33%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

SMLMAH • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.26%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score22.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing26%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4819σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2030 of 2716
Top 74.74% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.3%
1M-0.4%
6M+5.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹N/A
200 DMA₹N/A
150 DMA SlopeN/ANeutral
Relative Strength+10.99%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0000
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).
SMLMAHSMLMAH
12 Risk
Sector %ile33th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ASHOKLEYAshok Leyland Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

TMCVTata Motors Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20252,405122177322
FY20242,201108-50416
FY20231,8252090258
FY2022930-100-19-