SMSPHARMASMSPHARMA Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

40.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹363.95▲1.24%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+11.9 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (23.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-3.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
SMSPHARMA: Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.3% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
SMSPHARMA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 10.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.827.70✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+47.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹363.95(+1.24%)
1M Divergence-12.11%
1 Week-3.27%
1 Month-9.85%
6 Months+12.87%
1 Year+40.12%
2 Year+84.18%
3 Year+328.28%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

SMSPHARMA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.91%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing91%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3725σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1822 of 2716
Top 67.08% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.3%
1M-9.8%
6M+12.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹348.87
200 DMA₹326.05
150 DMA Slope+5.0138%Rising
Relative Strength+19.11%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7055
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (19).
SMSPHARMASMSPHARMA
15 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+5
Active Flags4
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta0
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

ALBERTDAVDAlbert David Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta-8
Active Flags27
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202689510259365
FY20257896982311
FY20247145050280
FY2023527-722253