SPICSPIC Forensic Risk Analysis

Fertilizers
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+30 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

75.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹68.53▲1.57%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+12.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-2.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
SPIC: EBITDA margin compressed by 6.4 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 12.2% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 45.1%.

"Working capital cycle is stretching dangerously. This is putting severe strain on daily operations."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (17.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-21.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
SPIC: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
SPIC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -1.14x in FY2024 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
SPIC: Net Profit collapsed by 195.1% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
SPIC: Revenue fell 31.1% while Debt rose 16.6% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)10.337.97⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+45.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹68.53(+1.57%)
1M Divergence-4.73%
1 Week-5.07%
1 Month-2.46%
6 Months-16.45%
1 Year-18.17%
2 Year-0.17%
3 Year+11.63%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

SPIC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3621σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1799 of 2716
Top 66.24% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.1%
1M-2.5%
6M-16.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹74.78
200 DMA₹80.88
150 DMA Slope-4.0150%Declining
Relative Strength-11.32%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4918
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (21).
ARIESAries Agro Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

SPICSPIC
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+30
Active Flags8
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Watch

AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta0
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
440th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,015211395698
FY20253,100156-38716
FY20241,962113227464
FY20232,849301-31398