SUPRAJITSUPRAJIT Forensic Risk Analysis

Auto Components & Equipments
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
8 / 100
+1 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

37.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹459.25▼0.81%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 8 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
SUPRAJIT: Net Profit collapsed by 62.5% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
SUPRAJIT: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.3 bps YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 1.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (24.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (15.3%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.455.20✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+58.0+55.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹459.25(-0.81%)
1M Divergence+8.36%
1 Week-3.03%
1 Month+10.62%
6 Months+0.25%
1 Year+11.51%
2 Year+5.02%
3 Year+21.06%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

SUPRAJIT • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.8%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score55%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing8%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0465σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#909 of 2716
Top 33.47% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.0%
1M+10.6%
6M+0.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹438.5
200 DMA₹442.2
150 DMA Slope-0.7333%Declining
Relative Strength+4.06%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.7269
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10.5).
ASKAUTOLTDASK Automotive Limited
1 Risk
Sector %ile7th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

SUPRAJITSUPRAJIT
8 Risk
Sector %ile37th
Delta+1
Active Flags5
Accel+3
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ARE&MAmara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile89th
Delta-5
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,941183171785
FY20253,32399185657
FY20242,956167249624
FY20232,791152239642