TATACOMMTata Communications Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Telecom - Cellular & Fixed line services
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹44,055 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
16 / 100
+5 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,906.2▼1.87%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Earnings Quality
+9.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
-4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk16 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 16 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TATACOMM: Net Profit collapsed by 75.1% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
TATACOMM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.26x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.273.96✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+50.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Telecom - Cellular & Fixed line services (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,906.2(-1.87%)
1M Divergence+20.23%
1 Week-5.12%
1 Month+20.61%
6 Months+3.22%
1 Year+15.42%
2 Year+9.78%
3 Year+44.72%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TATACOMM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.88%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing88%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.6310σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#384 of 2716
Top 14.14% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.1%
1M+20.6%
6M+3.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,684.63
200 DMA₹1,680.96
150 DMA Slope+0.0242%Flat / Basing
Relative Strength+8.71%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5987
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
IDEAVodafone Idea Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

TATACOMMTata Communications Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta+5
Active Flags4
Accel+4
Competitive Position

Stable

TTMLTata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

MTNLMTNL
36 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-8
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202625,1049974,47910,582
FY202523,2391,8372,91110,880
FY202421,2519703,18210,118
FY202318,2011,8014,3847,533