Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹414.9(▼1.1%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TATAPOWERTata Power Company Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Tata Power Company Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Integrated Power Utilities

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market Cap₹1,17,636 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

44 / 100

+3 QoQ

Deteriorating

Sentinel Insight

Leverage and execution pressures are building. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹414.9▼1.1%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+20.0 pts

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.6 pts

Final Composite Risk44 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 44 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 3.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

TATAPOWER: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.37x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

TATAPOWER: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

TATAPOWER: Revenue fell 4.2% while Debt rose 22.3% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.08	8.23	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+22.0	+42.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Integrated Power Utilities (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹414.9(-1.1%)

1M Divergence-7.05%

1 Week-1.44%

1 Month-6.67%

6 Months+7.92%

1 Year+5.16%

2 Year-4%

3 Year+96.24%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

TATAPOWER • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score90%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing96%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.0275σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#937 of 2716

Top 34.50% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.4%

1M-6.7%

6M+7.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹392.22

200 DMA₹391.3

150 DMA Slope+0.9523%Rising

Relative Strength+13.41%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4431

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (23.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CESCCESC Limited	11	0th	-5	13	+0	Competitive PositionStable
ADANIPOWERAdani Power Limited	15	20th	-5	13	+0	Competitive PositionStable
RELINFRAReliance Infrastructure Limited	35	80th	+8	18	+1	Competitive PositionWatch
TATAPOWERTata Power Company Limited	44	100th	+3	5	+4	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration