UGROCAPUGROCAP Forensic Risk Analysis

Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC)
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,386 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

94.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹95.15▲0.18%
PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
UGROCAP: NIM compressed by 128 bps YoY (to 4.01%).

"NIM is under severe pressure due to rising cost of funds or falling asset yields."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)44.59✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) (n=38 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹95.15(+0.18%)
1M Divergence-12.19%
1 Week-3.22%
1 Month-12.92%
6 Months-45.13%
1 Year-47.06%
2 Year-66.5%
3 Year-59.88%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

UGROCAP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-1.0048σ
Significant momentum lag
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2539 of 2716
Top 93.48% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.2%
1M-12.9%
6M-45.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹136.81
200 DMA₹146.2
150 DMA Slope-6.9949%Declining
Relative Strength-39.48%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7531
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
AIILAuthum Investment & Infrastructure Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile78th
Delta0
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

UGROCAPUGROCAP
20 Risk
Sector %ile95th
Delta-5
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20251,442144-2,4746,904
FY20241,082119-1,5354,653
FY202368440-1,2203,149
FY202231315-1,132-