Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹220.73(▲1.48%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ZUARIZUARI Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: ZUARI Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Fertilizers

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

45 / 100

+10 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹220.73▲1.48%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+20.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk45 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 21 → 45 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ZUARI: EBITDA margin compressed by 13.8 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 421.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 13.6 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ZUARI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.81x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ZUARI: Net Profit collapsed by 192.3% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (55.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-79.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	8.33	7.97	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+21.0	+45.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹220.73(+1.48%)

1M Divergence-8.42%

1 Week-2.11%

1 Month-6.15%

6 Months-15.96%

1 Year+2.73%

2 Year+31%

3 Year+58.63%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ZUARI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3653σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1805 of 2716

Top 66.46% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.1%

1M-6.2%

6M-16.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹253.21

200 DMA₹265.65

150 DMA Slope-2.1499%Declining

Relative Strength-10.47%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2864

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ARIESAries Agro Limited	5	0th	+5	5	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
BOHRAINDBohra Industries Limited	11	44th	0	8	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited	35	75th	0	26	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ZUARIZUARI	45	100th	+10	6	+2	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration