METHODOLOGY WALKTHROUGH: FOR EDUCATIONAL DEMONSTRATION ONLY. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

LTInfra/EPCWorking Capital Intensive
15th April 2026

Larsen & Toubro Ltd

We track 12 quarters of structural velocity to detect systemic stress that may not yet be reflected in market valuation metrics.

Peak Risk Score
32/ 100
Scale: 0 = Clean • 100 = Severe Risk (Lower is safer)
Risk ClassLow-Moderate
Peak Valuation—Pre-Crisis High
Trough / Resolution—Post-Default Market
Default Exposure—Admitted Claims
Flagium Risk Score (Left Axis: 0–100)
Multi-Quarter Risk vs. Stock Trajectory
0255075100Elevated Risk Threshold (65)Moderate Band (45)Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6Q7Q8Q9Q10Q11Q12FlagiumAI • Systematic Corporate Health Monitoring (flagiumai.com)
Systematic Watermark: FlagiumAI • Systematic Corporate Health Monitoring
•

Structural risk reflects underlying balance sheet trends over a multi-quarter window.

Key Engine Signals & Trigger Factors

Primary forensic signals contributing to the 32/100 peak risk score

Signal Attribution
✕

Working Capital Load

High receivables due to complex long-cycle projects.

✓

Order Velocity Gap

New orders significantly outpace project execution speed.

✓

Strong Asset Turnover

Efficient use of specialized construction machinery.

✓

Stable Interest Cover

EBITDA comfortably servicing group debt.

Forensic Pillar Evaluation

Status across all 6 core analysis pillars in the sector model.

02. Liquidity (WC)Moderate

Receivable days remain high but historically stable.

01. Earnings QualityStable

Cash-to-profit conversion is consistent for EPC.

03. SolvencyStable

Debt is largely concentrated in finance subsidiaries.

04. Specialized (Infra)Stable

Executing large-scale global projects without delay.

05. Sector RelativeStable

NWC cycles are better managed than Infra peers.

06. GovernanceStable

High-integrity disclosures on mega-project risks.

Key Trigger Signals & Disclosures

Algorithmic trigger conditions and statutory data points.

Pillar 2: Liquidity

TRIGGERED

Execution vs. Billing Lag

Trigger Condition:

Receivables > 120 Days

In Infra, the engine flags 'unbilled revenue'. L&T shows discipline in collecting project milestones.

Filing Source:Consolidated Financials
#Trade Receivables#NWC/Revenue

Forensic Analysis Takeaway

Key Lesson for Institutional & Public Investors

"L&T represents a 'Managed Risk' profile. Higher liquidity load (Pillar 2) is a feature of the Infra business model, not a bug, and is balanced by strong Pillar 1 cash flow."

Evaluated by Flagium Quantitative EWS Backtest Engine

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EWS Engineering & Methodology

Explore the Forensic Methodology Behind the EWS Score

Discover how Flagium's 6-pillar framework, 29 forensic flags, sector capacity models, and interaction multipliers quantify balance sheet stress and credit deterioration across Indian equities.