ALKEMAlkem Laboratories Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹66,747 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
11 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

32.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹5,239▼1.42%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+6.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-3.0 pts
Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 11 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
ALKEM: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (14.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (1.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 4.5%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.827.70✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+55.0+47.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹5,239(-1.42%)
1M Divergence-5.25%
1 Week-2.62%
1 Month-2.98%
6 Months-6.68%
1 Year+3.8%
2 Year+10.93%
3 Year+60.08%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ALKEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.11%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score17.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing11%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4529σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1987 of 2716
Top 73.16% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.6%
1M-3.0%
6M-6.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹5,528.91
200 DMA₹5,483.78
150 DMA Slope+0.0337%Flat / Basing
Relative Strength-1.10%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0262
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (19).
ALKEMAlkem Laboratories Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile32th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

AARTIDRUGSAarti Drugs Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile51th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta0
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202615,2962,3511,9631,624
FY202513,4582,2151,9131,063
FY202412,9781,8111,9481,214
FY202311,8151,0071,6831,397