BALAXIBALAXI PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market Cap₹105 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
45 / 100
+10 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

96.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
24.970%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+15.2 pts
Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk45 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 945 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BALAXI: EBITDA margin compressed by 10.8 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 11.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.1%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BALAXI: Net Profit collapsed by 92.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
BALAXI: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 24.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BALAXI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.42x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
BALAXI: Revenue fell 5.5% while Debt rose 8.1% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.177.70✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+21.0+47.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
24.97(+0%)
1M Divergence-8.5%
1 Week-1.58%
1 Month-6.23%
6 Months-28.6%
1 Year-52.92%
2 Year-79.02%
3 Year-76.24%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BALAXI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0453σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1073 of 2716
Top 39.51% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.6%
1M-6.2%
6M-28.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA27.85
200 DMA32.32
150 DMA Slope-7.9705%Declining
Relative Strength-27.48%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3021
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
2.424th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262731-556
FY202528925-3552
FY2024239-2518
FY202333946612