Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹513.75(▼1.22%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CARRAROCarraro India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Carraro India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Auto Components & Equipments

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹2,644 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

8 / 100

-1 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

37.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹513.75▼1.22%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 8 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (1)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -6.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	2.73	5.20	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+58.0	+55.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

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Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹513.75(-1.22%)

1M Divergence-10.53%

1 Week-15.57%

1 Month-8.27%

6 Months-6.79%

1 Year+19.49%

2 Year-18.58%

3 Year-18.58%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

CARRARO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.35%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score20%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing35%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4969σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2054 of 2716

Top 75.63% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-15.6%

1M-8.3%

6M-6.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹527.71

200 DMA₹507.39

150 DMA Slope+2.5436%Rising

Relative Strength-1.46%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4079

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ASKAUTOLTDASK Automotive Limited	1	7th	-5	9	+0	GovernanceStable
CARRAROCarraro India Limited	8	37th	-1	1	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited	20	74th	-5	18	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ARE&MAmara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited	30	89th	-5	19	+0	Earnings QualityWatch