Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹975.05(▼1.27%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

JUBLPHARMAJubilant Pharmova Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Jubilant Pharmova Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pharmaceuticals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹13,698 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

11 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

32.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹975.05▼1.27%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+10.6 pts

Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 11 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

JUBLPHARMA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.22x in FY2024 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

JUBLPHARMA: Net Profit collapsed by 78.7% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (36.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (5.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

JUBLPHARMA: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.4 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.42	7.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+55.0	+47.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹975.05(-1.27%)

1M Divergence+2.96%

1 Week-1.03%

1 Month+5.23%

6 Months-8.66%

1 Year-16.28%

2 Year+43.14%

3 Year+197.63%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

JUBLPHARMA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.0343σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1052 of 2716

Top 38.73% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.0%

1M+5.2%

6M-8.7%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹988.53

200 DMA₹1,012.67

150 DMA Slope-1.2615%Declining

Relative Strength-4.37%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8284

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (19).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
JUBLPHARMAJubilant Pharmova Limited	11	32th	0	6	+0	Earnings QualityStable
AARTIDRUGSAarti Drugs Limited	19	51th	-5	11	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited	23	63th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited	35	81th	0	18	+0	Earnings QualityWatch