PPLPHARMAPiramal Pharma Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market Cap₹20,338 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
41 / 100
-1 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

95.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹166.92▼2.33%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+14.5 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+11.5 pts
Final Composite Risk41 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 41 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 5.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PPLPHARMA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.35x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (12.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-8.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
PPLPHARMA: Net Profit collapsed by 105.7% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (20.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-8.4%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
PPLPHARMA: Revenue fell 2.2% while Debt rose 16.4% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.57.70✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+25.0+47.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹166.92(-2.33%)
1M Divergence+0.85%
1 Week-6.68%
1 Month+3.12%
6 Months-7.7%
1 Year-18.79%
2 Year+12.9%
3 Year+108.86%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

PPLPHARMA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1114σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1217 of 2716
Top 44.81% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-6.7%
1M+3.1%
6M-7.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹168.12
200 DMA₹174.96
150 DMA Slope-1.6043%Declining
Relative Strength-2.21%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.8642
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).
AARTIDRUGSAarti Drugs Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile51th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta0
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

PPLPHARMAPiramal Pharma Limited
41 Risk
Sector %ile95th
Delta-1
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
0.33th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20269,082-3261,6535,495
FY20259,286918924,720
FY20248,347181,0054,559
FY20237,307-1864845,505