ABSLAMC
NSE↗BSE↗Large Cap
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited
Financial Services›Capital Markets›Asset Management Company
Current Price₹866.75(-1.34%)
Market Cap₹25,064 Cr
Analysis WindowQ2 FY27
Last Updated28 Oct 2026
Flagium AI Risk Score
Risk Score measures the severity of detected structural financial risks using Flagium's quantitative risk framework. A lower score indicates fewer or less severe detected risks (0 = Minimal Risk, 100 = Severe Risk). Quarter-to-quarter changes reflect changes in the underlying risk signals, not investment recommendations.
0/ 100
Scale: 0 = Clean • 100 = Severe Risk (Lower is safer)0th Percentile · Sector
Risk ClassStable
Risk Trend
StableQoQ Delta 0 pts
Business🟢 Stable
No Active Flags
Valuations○ Balanced
Implied ROE Gap-16.7%Valuation Risk: Medium
Market Structure○ Topping
Stage 36 sessions

Improving fundamentals and stabilizing technical baseline. Base building process active. Valuations remain balanced and supported by current metrics.

Market Alignment🟠MixedMarket structure remains stable, but heavy distribution flows indicate institutional pressure.

SENTINEL REVIEW

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited (ABSLAMC)•Updated yesterday

EXECUTIVE FORENSIC DIAGNOSIS
27 Sept 2026

🛡️ Sound Structural Profile: In FY2026, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited reports a 4.8% YoY growth in reported net profit to ₹975.1 Cr, compared with ₹930.6 Cr in the prior year. Operating cash flows of ₹811.9 Cr, with a CFO/PAT ratio of 0.83, indicate cash-backed profitability, though earnings quality is stabilizing as reliance on non-operational items recedes. Balance sheet integrity is strong, with no debt and a contained operating leverage gap of 11.4%, reflecting structural profitability risks. The company’s AUM yield compression, with a 25.6% decline in yield from 13.12 bps to 9.76 bps, suggests revenue growth is not keeping pace with asset growth, potentially due to lower-margin passive products or fee pressure.

WHAT CHANGED THIS QUARTER
  • ✓Risk score improved (QoQ change: 0 pts)
  • ✓Profitability margins pressure eased
  • ✗Growth expectations are demanding
  • ✓Market structure is neutral/stabilizing
  • ✗Institutional flow regime is Distribution (-0.40σ)
  • ✗Share price is down -12.9% this quarter (from ₹995.3 on 30 Sept to ₹866.75)
DUE DILIGENCE CHECKLIST
  • 🟢No severe forensic red flags active for ABSLAMC
  • 🟠Track earnings quality and working capital trends in next filing
  • 🟢Maintain routine quarterly surveillance; no governance escalation required
RISK CONTRIBUTORS
  • 0 ptsClean Profile (Zero Penalties)
NEED CLARIFICATION ON THIS QUARTER'S AUDIT?

Divergence Radar

BUSINESS STRENGTH100/100
VALUATION ATTRACTIVENESS (MARGIN OF SAFETY)49/100
MARKET TREND STRUCTURE40/100
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW ACCUMULATION40/100

Structural Matrix

Valuation
Business Quality
Attractive
Balanced
Demanding
Strong
Moderate
Weak
🟡
Profile: STRONG × BALANCED VALUATION

Risk vs Price Timeline
Visualizing the historical relationship between the structural risk score and stock price movement over time.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹866.75(-1.34%)
1M Divergence-6.12%
DurationPerf.Sector AvgDivergence
1 Week-8.8%-1.68%-7.12%
1 Month-12.25%-6.12%-6.12%
6 Months-14.62%+2.84%-17.46%
1 Year+7.02%+28.06%-21.04%
2 Year+17.43%+14217.24%-14199.8%
3 Year+107.07%-2257.96%+2365.04%

Business Analysis Methodology

Business analysis focuses on structural risk inside the company. Flagium monitors earnings quality, balance sheet strength, liquidity, governance, competitive position, and growth sustainability to identify areas where risk may be increasing or decreasing before it becomes obvious in reported results.

Flagium AI Risk Score0 / 100Riskier than 0% of Sector Peers
Risk Class
Stable
Risk Trend0 QoQ · StableNo change in risk score
Stress MomentumStable (0 Qtrs)Consecutive quarters worsening
Severe Risk Chance5%
Low / Manageable
Interpretation

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

Risk Score Composition

Absolute point contribution of each forensic risk driver to the final composite risk score.
No active forensic penalties contributing.
Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has remained stable (0 → 0) over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
STABLE
Primary Risk Drivers
Zero active risk triggers detected
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow sustainability
  • Working capital discipline

Risk Drivers (Active Warnings)

No active warnings detected.

Decaying / Resolved Signals (12Q Surveillance)
✓ AUM Yield Compression (Q4-FY26)✓ Operating Leverage Stress (Q4-FY25)

Primary Driver & Insights

Key ContributorNone
Forensic Analyst Insight

Forensic risk profile is stable. No severe operating or financial anomalies are currently pressure-testing business resilience.

Advanced Business Analytics

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
[A1]AUM Yield Compression
Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtr
Framework: XBRL Quarterly
AUM YieldHigh Tier
9.8 bps↓ 25.6%
Signal MomentumDecaying
Historical BaselineStatutory Filing Baseline
Empirical Trigger

Yield compression detected: Fee realization dropped from 13.1 bps to 9.8 bps.

Forensic Implication

Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding.

Statutory XBRLFiling Period: Q4 FY2026
[O1]Operating Leverage Stress
Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtr
Framework: XBRL Quarterly
Leverage GapHigh Tier
+11.4%Expense > Rev
Signal MomentumDecaying
Historical Baseline12-Qtr Median: 62.5%
Empirical Trigger

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

Forensic Implication

Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed.

Statutory XBRLFiling Period: Q4 FY2025

Statutory Note: Forensic signals are algorithmic quantitative observations derived from publicly filed XBRL disclosures and do not constitute allegations of legal misconduct or investment recommendations.

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Access complete multi-quarter financial evidence, 5-KPI snapshot strips, diagnostic hypotheses, and 1-page forensic PDF dossiers for Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited.

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Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Business Stability
Key indicators of structural risk, cash buffer capability, and risk progression.
Shock ResistanceHigh
Severe Risk ChanceLow
Financial StabilityHigh
Margin of SafetyHigh
Forensic Benchmark Context: Financial Services (n=255 peers)

Structural Risk Attribution

Auditable forensic risk attribution explaining why the Flagium AI Risk Score changed between quarters. Deconstructs the score delta into new triggers, severity escalations, cross-pillar contagion overlays, and rules no longer triggered in the latest quarter.

Deterministic quarter-on-quarter causal decomposition grounded in statutory exchange filings.

Peer Benchmark:Financial Services(n=255 peers)
Median Risk: 10/100Position: 0th Percentile

Historical Trajectory (12Q)

Resilient · 0 Breaks
← Swipe older12Q window
0/100
Base
0/100
0/100
0/100
0/100
5/100
0/100
0/100
0/100
5/100
0/100
0/100
LATEST
0➔0/100
■0-point change(Q1 FY27 ➔ Q2 FY27)
Auditable forensic risk attribution explaining why the Flagium AI Risk Score changed between quarters.
Executive Synthesis:

Risk profile remained stable this quarter, with no new forensic alarms or critical threshold escalations detected.

Reconciliation Bridge· Swipe ➔
Deterministic Statutory Flow
Base0Q1 FY27
➔
+ New Stress00 flags
➔
- Resolved00 flags cleared
➔
Scaling & Drift
Net calibration combining economic pillar capacity ceiling (0 pts) and temporal volatility dampening (0 pts).
0Pillar Cap & Drift
➔
Terminal00 net · Q2 FY27
What Changed This Quarter0 Active Catalysts
✓
Pristine Baseline StabilityZero Forensic Anomalies or Alarms Fired in Q2 FY27
Clean State
New Alarms0
Net Delta0 pts
Risk ClassLow Risk
↳All 6 fundamental pillars operated within established safety parameters. No individual indicator transitions or severity shifts occurred during this period.
Risk Pillar Changes
Net shift in risk score points contributed by each fundamental economic pillar between the two quarters.
6 Fundamental Pillars
Competitive Position—
Q1 FY27: 0→Q2 FY27: 0
Earnings Quality—
Q1 FY27: 0→Q2 FY27: 0
Governance—
Q1 FY27: 0→Q2 FY27: 0
Growth Sustainability—
Q1 FY27: 0→Q2 FY27: 0

Business Resilience & Benchmark Context

Overall: STRONG
Governance(10)Excellent★★★★★
█████100th %ile
Earnings Quality(10)Excellent★★★★★
█████100th %ile
Competitive Position(10)Excellent★★★★★
█████100th %ile
Growth Sustainability(10)Excellent★★★★★
█████100th %ile

PEER COMPARISON MATRIX

Ranked surveillance & credit risk comparison against sector peers

Company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (10).
ABSLAMC
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited
0STABLE
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

360ONELowest Risk
360 ONE WAM LIMITED
10STABLE
Sector %ile43th
Delta+2
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Growth Sustainability

Stable

AIIL
Authum Investment & Infrastructure Limited
16WATCH
Sector %ile65th
Delta0
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ABCAPITAL
Aditya Birla Capital Limited
26MODERATE
Sector %ile90th
Delta+12
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Governance

Watch

5PAISA
5Paisa Capital Limited
28MODERATE
Sector %ile91th
Delta+19
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Governance

Watch

AAVASHighest Risk
Aavas Financiers Limited
41MODERATE
Sector %ile99th
Delta+11
Active Flags10
Accel+2
Governance

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Financial SummaryAudited · Consolidated
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
—
Growing↑
Asset Quality (Gross NPA)
—
Stable↔
Provision Coverage (PCR)
—
Improving↑
Capital Adequacy (CRAR)
—
Improving↑
Borrowings & Funding
—
Stable↔
Swipe for all periods ⇆
MetricFY2026FY2025FY2024FY2023FY20223Y CAGR
Structural triggers–––
Interest Income3,6903,3702,7062,4532,586+15%
growth % YoY+9.5%+24.5%+10.3%−5.1%——
Operating Profit (PPOP)1,2681,2451,008794895+17%
margin %34.4%36.9%37.3%32.4%34.6%—
PAT975931780596673+18%
margin %26.4%27.6%28.8%24.3%26.0%—
AUM4,4154,1143,5022,788—+17%
Borrowings0.000.000.000.00—n/m
Structural triggers first appear in FY2025 (ringed).

Industry Intelligence

Asset Management KPIs
Total AUM
ⓘ
Q2 FY2027
Current₹441.8 Thousand Cr
QoQ Change+3.3%↑ AUM expansion accelerating
YoY Change—
Industry Median₹614.4 Thousand Cr
Quarterly AUM Growth (QoQ)
ⓘ
Q2 FY2027
Current3.3%
QoQ Change+520 bps↑ AUM expansion accelerating
YoY Change—
Industry Median3.7%

Understanding Asset Management KPIs

Total AUM: Total Average Assets Under Management (AAUM) across mutual fund schemes, published quarterly by AMFI. Industry Median represents the actual median AAUM across listed Asset Management companies. Learn More →
Quarterly AUM Growth (QoQ): Quarter-on-quarter growth in Average Assets Under Management (AAUM). Industry Median reflects the actual median QoQ growth across listed Asset Management companies. Learn More →
Shareholding Pattern & Pledging Monitor12QZero Pledge
Promoter holding down 11.80 pp across 12 quarters — requires monitoring
Promoter holding 74.67% (−11.80 pp across 12 quarters) · zero pledge or encumbrance · institutional holding 19.39%
Q2 FY2027 · latest disclosed quarter
Net Capital Flow (Q2 FY2027):FII -0.09 ppDII +0.81 ppPromoters -0.04 ppPublic -0.68 pp
FII+DII Net: +0.72 pp
Latest Ownership Distribution (Q2 FY2027)100.00%
Promoters (74.67%)
FII (4.32%)
DII (15.07%)
Govt (0.03%)
Public (5.91%)
Quarterly Progression
3 unchanged — Government 0.03% · Promoter Pledge (% Prom) 0.00% · Total Pledged (% Eq) 0.00% across 12 quarters

* Sourced from quarterly shareholding pattern disclosures filed under Regulation 31 of SEBI (LODR) Regulations. Pledged shares include encumbrances, non-disposal undertakings (NDU), and liens.

🎙️

Concall & Management Takeaways

Investor Earnings Call Transcripts & Tone Analysis

No investor earnings call transcripts transcribed for this scrip.

Earnings call intelligence is automatically populated when companies conduct quarterly earnings calls with institutional investors and publish transcripts.

Sentinel Forensic AssessmentALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY
Fundamental Status

Business quality remains strong.

Forensic Pressure

Current forensic pressure is low and improving.

Primary Risk Vectors

Key risks remain concentrated in growth sustainability and operating leverage.

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

Market Expectation Engine

BALANCED EXPECTATIONS

Investor Translation • What the market price is expecting

Expectation Engine

At the current price of ₹867, the market expects this company to deliver an ROE of 29.4% every year. If you think the company will generate an ROE higher than 29.4%, current market prices reflect a discount relative to that assumption.

Sentinel Takeaway:The market expects future growth in line with the company's historical delivery. Current market expectations appear balanced relative to the business's track record, representing standard expectation risk.

Market-Implied ROE29.4%Future Growth Needed
Actual Trailing ROE25.4%Actual Past Growth
ROE Expectation Gap+4.0%Growth Jump Needed
Expectation Risk55/100Price Risk Score
CONSERVATIVE (-7%)BALANCEDDEMANDING (31%)
Historical (25.4%)
Market (29.4%)
Valuation Summary

Using the Implied ROE Model, the market is pricing ABSLAMC for a 29.4% Return on Equity (implied from its 6.46x P/B) versus its 25.4% actual trailing ROE. Current expectations appear elevated. Valuation risk is Medium.

Business Delivery Capacity

Performance quality vs historical benchmarks
Historical Delivery Assessment
Revenue Growth SupportObserved CAGR vs cost of capital baseline
25.4% CAGR
✓ Achieved
Operating Profitability SupportEBIT margins compared to historical standards
N/A
✗ Weak Margin
Cash Flow Generation SupportOperating cash flow conversion and support cushion
N/A
✗ Negative
Capital Leverage RiskLeverage indicators and solvency pressure
Clean
✓ Clean
Delivery Capacity Index
45/100
MODERATE CAPACITY

Historical business performance currently provides moderate support for the market's implied growth assumptions. Improvement in revenue growth and operating efficiency would strengthen expectation support.

WHY IS EXPECTATION RISK ELEVATED?

Risk Drivers:
✓High implied growth
✓Weak profitability support
✓Weak cash generation support

Valuation Context

Historical Valuation59th percentile
Cash Yield SupportN/A (Weak)
Sector Premium+48% EV/EBITDA
Current Valuation RegimeBalanced

VALUATION METRICS & QUALITY CHECK

MARKET REQUIRED METRICS
Assumption MetricCompany Current / ImpliedBenchmark / Sector MedianFulfillment Assessment
Return on Equity (ROE)29.4% (Implied)25.4% (Actual)Achievable
Price-to-Book (P/B Multiple)6.46x1.69xHigh Premium
Return on Assets (ROA)23.27%1.00% (Healthy Standard)Strong ROA

*Valuation parameters and asset quality checks represent key operational drivers of banking risk and institutional investment scoring.

Advanced Valuation Analytics
Sentinel Expectation Assessment

The current valuation assumes business performance broadly in line with the company's historical record. Historical operating performance currently provides limited evidence that these expectations are sustainable. Continued stronger profitability and stronger cash generation would be required to justify current pricing.

Market Structure Methodology

Flagium separates Business Risk from Market Structure. Business analysis explains what is happening inside the company. Market Structure measures how investors are behaving through price trends, momentum, participation, and institutional activity. Divergences between the two often reveal important transitions before they become obvious.

Market Structure
STAGE 3
TOPPING OUTPROFIT TAKING
Stage Progress
Measures the progress of the stock's current price, volume, and momentum characteristic alignments.
20%
TrendDistribution
MomentumNeutral
ParticipationNeutral
A/D FlowDeteriorating
Sentinel Market Insight

The stock remains in a confirmed Stage 3 distribution phase. Institutional participation has also deteriorated, compounding the weakening trend as momentum is beginning to decay. Current price action does not yet confirm a decisive breakdown or a renewed advance.

What Is Driving Market Structure?

Market Drivers
✗Long-term trend remains below the 150DMA
✗Long-term trend remains below the 200DMA
✗RS continues to lag the market
✗Institutional flow has deteriorated
✗Momentum remains negative
Summary
🟠Mixed

Market structure remains stable, but heavy distribution flows indicate institutional pressure.

Market Cycle Stage Analysis

Stan Weinstein 4-Stage Cycle
S1
Base Building(Institutional accumulation & base building)
S2
Strong Uptrend(Ideal breakout & momentum zone)
S3
Topping Out(Institutional distribution & profit taking)
S4
Downtrend(Elevated capital erosion risk)
Stage Lifecycle
Stage Progress
20%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Regime Sessions6 Sessions
Transition Probability6% Low
Measures the alignment and consistency of the stock's price trend relative to its historical volume volatility.
0.5655σ Weak
Trend & Strength
Trend QualitySoftening
150 DMA Slope+0.4139%
Participation & Volume
Total rupee value of shares actually delivered into buyers' Demat accounts today (excluding intraday trades). Delivery % indicates what portion of today's total trade was held as delivery rather than squared off intraday.
₹7.6 Cr53.99% Delivery (High Conviction)
Compares the 21-day average delivery turnover against the 200-day long-term baseline. Delivery expansion above baseline confirms a structural accumulation trend.
▼ 52.7% (21D vs 200D Avg)Delivery Volume Drying Up
Avg Turnover (200D)
The 200-day average daily traded turnover in ₹ Crore. Represents baseline trading depth and capacity to enter or exit positions with minimal slippage.
₹38.9 Cr
Liquidity Rating
Categorizes trading liquidity based on 200-day average turnover: Liquid (≥₹100 Cr/day), Low Liquidity (₹50–₹100 Cr/day), or Illiquid (<₹50 Cr/day) for sizing and slippage risk control.
Illiquid (High Slippage Risk)
Participation
Evaluates current volume participation against historical baseline turnover. Healthy (≥1.2x) confirms active broad-market sponsorship, while Weak (<0.8x) indicates lack of volume conviction.
Weak

Momentum & Institutional Flow

Price Momentum
Momentum StrengthWeakening momentum trend
Price momentum score in standard deviations (σ). Readings beyond ±2.0σ indicate extreme momentum shifts.
-0.4383σ
Universe Rank
#1821 of 2259Bottom 19.39% in momentum strength
Institutional Accumulation
21D Flow Score
21-day cumulative institutional flow score in standard deviations (σ).
-0.40σ
7D Flow TrendDeteriorating
ABSLAMC
STAGE 3 • TOPPING
—
C:—
Loading Market Structure Data...

Methodology & Regulatory Disclaimer

Flagium AI is an automated financial data analytics and research platform providing quantitative risk, forensic, and valuation analytics for informational and educational purposes only. Flagium AI is not registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst or Investment Adviser under SEBI regulations. These analytics do not constitute financial planning, investment advice, or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security.

Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please consult a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser before acting on any data presented.

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